“Will the opening coin toss land or heads or tails?” is the classic Super Bowl prop bet, It distills gambling to its essence: Pure vibes. Unless it’s rigged, a coin toss is a 50/50 chance, and the professional odds reflect that (They’re -105 for both heads and tails on the bookie sites I’ve looked at, meaning that you’d need to put $105 down on either to win $100).
But if you want to dig deeper, in the last 56 Super Bowls, tails has won 29 times to heads’ 27 wins, so if you bet tails every year you’d be ahead, even given the bookie’s take. On the other hand, heads has prevailed in four of the last five Super Bowl flips. Is the coin weighted to favor one side? Does the bounciness of the turf play into the likely result? Is it true that “tails never fails?” Does the fact that people say “tails never fails” make heads a better bet? No. It’s all chance, and it’s 50/50.