Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party will win 35 per cent of the votes in UP, said the new exit poll.New Delhi: The BJP is set for a massive victory in Uttar Pradesh and the Congress will be routed in Punjab, a new post poll survey has predicted just a day before the counting of votes cast in five state elections tomorrow.The BJP and its allies will win 43 per cent of the vote share in Uttar Pradesh, says the Lokniti-CSDS exit poll.Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party, the BJP’s main challenger, will win 35 per cent of the votes, says the exit poll.Mayawati’s BSP is set to win 15 per cent of the votes, the Congress three per cent and the others, four percent, Lokniti-CSDS says, according to a series of tweets by political analyst Sanjay Kumar.The survey has not done a seat projection.Lokniti- CSDS Post Poll Survey UPAC 70 Locations 280Sample size nearly 7000 (exact number awaited as some data yet to be added)Vote Share EstimateBJP+ 43%SP+ 35%BSP 15%Cong 3%Oth 4%Big win for BJPMargin of error 3%@LoknitiCSDS@csdsdelhi— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022Lokniti- CSDS Post Poll Survey findings PUNJABNo of AC 45 Locations 180 all sampled randomly, Sample size 4668, voters sampled randomly from voters listVote share EstimateAAP 40%Cong 26%SAD+20%BJP+ 7%Oth 7%Big victory for AAPMargin of error 4%@LoknitiCSDS@csdsdelhi— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022Finding from Lokniti-CSDS Post Poll survey UTTARAKHANDNo of AC 26 Locations 104, Sample size 2738, All sampled randomlyEstimated Vote ShareBJP 43%Cong 38%AAP 3%BSP 4%Oth 12%Should give a comfortable majority to BJPMargin of error 3%.@LoknitiCSDS@csdsdelhi— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022Lokniti-CSDS Post Poll survey GOAAC 20 location 80 sample size 2066 sampled from voters listVote share estimateBJP 32%Cong 29%AITC+ 14%AAP 7%RG 8%Oth 10%Hung Assembly possibleMargin of error 6% due to smaller sample & multi corner contest@LoknitiCSDS@csdsdelhi— Sanjay Kumar (@sanjaycsds) March 9, 2022A health warning – exit polls often get it wrong.The Lokniti-CSDS exit poll says Congress is heading for a humiliating defeat in Punjab and Uttarakhand. It is a hung verdict again in Goa results, it says.In Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to win 40 per cent of the votes and the Congress, 26 per cent, says Lokniti-CSDS.The BJP is set to win seven per cent of the seats while its former ally, Akali Dal, will win 20, says the exit poll.In Goa, the new exit poll gives the BJP 32 per cent of the seats and the Congress, 29 per cent. The Trinamool Congress will win 14 per cent and AAP will win seven per cent, it says.Congress will lose in Uttarakhand too, the Lokniti-CSDS survey says. The BJP will win 43 per cent of the votes in Uttarakhand and the Congress, 38 per cent, says the survey.For UP, Punjab and Goa, these predictions tie in with the exit polls that came out on Monday, after the last round of voting in Uttar Pradesh.NDTV’s poll of exit polls says the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP is likely to win another term by a landslide in UP. The BJP and its allies are tipped to win 241 of the state’s 403 seats (the majority-mark is at 202). Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party is set to win 142 seats, the polls say.For Punjab, earlier exit polls predicted an AAP victory. The exit polls give AAP 63 seats in 117-seat Punjab, with the majority mark at 59. The ruling Congress is set to finish second with 28 seats in the assembly, the polls say.Most exit polls have predicted hung verdicts in Goa and Uttarakhand.
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